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Proof, not promises

Oilers Prediction Track Record: CLV, ROI & Calibration

Closing-line value, ROI, Brier score and calibration, reported openly and checkable against the public archive.

Daryl FerbushBy Daryl Ferbush · Updated Fri, Nov 13

Why this page matters

Anyone can post a pick; the proof is in the record. This page reports how Daryl Ferbush’s predictions have performed, using measures that are hard to fake. Today’s Oilers prediction is published at 6:00 a.m. MT and archived with a timestamp.

The numbers

1,043forecasts in the public archive
—CLV
—ROI, flat stakes
—Brier score
—games “outside the zone”
These figures will be published here once Daryl’s latest numbers are posted. Nothing on this page is estimated.

Calibration curve

These figures will be published here once Daryl’s latest numbers are posted. Nothing on this page is estimated.

The dashed red line is perfect calibration. Points near it mean Daryl’s percentages can be taken at face value; points far from it would show over- or under-confidence.

What each measure means

CLVClosing-line value: how often Daryl’s price beat the final market price before puck drop. Beating the closing line consistently is the standard test of real skill.
ROI, flat stakesProfit divided by money staked if every pick were bet at the same size. No staking tricks, so it can’t be flattered.
Brier scoreThe average squared gap between a forecast probability and what happened. Lower is better, and it is compared with a simple baseline model.
CalibrationWhen Daryl says 60%, do those teams win about 60% of the time? The calibration curve plots that and should hug the diagonal.
“Outside the zone”Games where the model and Daryl’s read differ by more than 12%. He doesn’t pick them, and they are counted openly.
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