How Daryl’s Oilers Model Works
Simulations, a daily timestamp and a rule for skipping games: how an Oilers prediction gets made.
By Daryl Ferbush · Updated Fri, Nov 13How the Oilers prediction model works
Every Oilers prediction on PredictionRaptor comes from the same open model and the same daily routine. This page is a plain-language summary of METHOD.md, the document that describes the method in full; if the two ever differ, METHOD.md is the source of truth. To see the model’s latest output, read today’s Oilers game prediction.
From simulation to published pick
Simulate
The model plays each game 12,000 times and turns the results into a win probability for Edmonton.
Adjust and compare
Adjustments described in METHOD.md are applied, and Daryl compares the output with his own read of the game.
Publish or skip
If the two views are within 12%, the pick goes up at 6:00 a.m. MT. If not, the game is “outside the zone” and no pick is given.
How it is checked
- Public archive: 1,043 forecasts with timestamps.
- Closing-line value, flat-stake ROI and Brier score, reported on the track record page.
- An external audit every year.
- No sportsbook partnerships and no promo codes in Daryl’s work.
Method FAQ
Is the Oilers model really open source?
Yes. The model is published under an MIT licence, and the method is written up in METHOD.md so anyone can read it, run it or challenge it.
Why does Daryl sometimes give no pick?
If the model and his own read of the game differ by more than 12%, he marks the game “outside the zone” and publishes nothing. Skipped games are counted and shown openly.
Can a published pick be changed afterwards?
Each pick is published at 6:00 a.m. MT with an independent timestamp and stored in the public archive, so a later edit would be visible. METHOD.md also sets out the corrections policy.
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